I has a theory, like all great theories its most likely shown to be a pile of crap in the face of reality, but for some time i have been sorta working at it in the back of my head.
If something happens, its more likely that something else will happen around the same time.
There must be a reset somewhere in the universe that says, ok today is zero time, now events are likely to happen in accordance to the Exponential distribution.
To see what that is look here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution
So to explain, have you ever noticed that one weekend there will be nothing to do, then during the week, you will get 3 or 4 invites for something the following weekend, all to be held at the same time?
Or, for example this is what happened today, you will go weeks without an unsolicited "wana catch up call" from an old friend, only to get two in one day?
So an exponential distribution has that an event is more likely to occure at the start. For example, the number of coin tosses to get the first head: 1/2 that it is at 1, 1/4 that it is at 2 (its 1/2*1/2 because you stop if you got it at 1), 1/8 that it is at 3 (its 1/2*1/4 because you stop if you got 1 or 2), 1/16 that it is at 4 etc.
So some universal reset occurs, then its more likely something will happen, but these "somethings" are all more likely, so hence you get a higher probability density of a lot of things occuring at the same time just after these universal resets.
Another way to look at it may be that the underlying cause of these apparently independant events is correlated. So everyone is bored from not doing anything on weekend 1, hence they all seperately decide to host something, hence weekend 2 is crammed full of events...
Its a work in progress. (I sometimes think it works for bad luck also, like stubbing your toe, then getting a parking fine, then getting a hair in your dinner, all in the one day)
1 comment:
I think part of it may also be due to things like work patterns. A lot of businesses may be busy during a certain time of the year, and then slack off for a bit after say tax time or whatever, so people's free time will tend to line up.
Or maybe you just don't really notice when something happens until it starts to happen a lot, at which time you'll think that was an unusually high frequency of events within a small period of time.
Post a Comment